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People who tend to evaluate the outcomes of the Washington G20 summit with cautious optimism believe that the United States would have to change its foreign policies, even refusing to be part of the established financial and economic configuration based on the US diktat. But is it possible at all? Is the American society so sure of its exclusive uniqueness ready to discard the idea of gaining the world’s superiority? Are ordinary Americans prepared to equal their levels of consumption with those of not even a moderately provided-for Chinese but of a European? Is the United States ready to cease paying for everything it buys abroad by tonnes of totally unsecured dollar-marked coloured paper? My answer is “No”, and once again “No.”
Why did Obama choose to miss the G20 summit, delegating Madelaine Allbright instead? And what made George W.Bush shine radiant smiles to the guests of the summit? The luxurious luminous hospitality with richly laden tables that resembled a feast in the midst of plague was needed to gain time.
While Washington officials continue talking about the financial crisis, Georgia is full steam ahead revamping its hurt military infrastructure with new supplies of arms and organising raids of sabotage groups to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Against this background north-Caucasian underground groups of all sorts and colours from the pseudo-defenders of human rights to suicide terrorists are raising their heads. Salafite missionaries are extending their activities. In the North Caucasus they pay young people money that is substantial according to North Caucasian standards to get them involved in what is known as jamaats. Everyone is paid for anything: women for wearing the hejab, men – for learning Islam, regular praying at the mosques, studying sabotage methods at special camps. Aid is given to the families of the wounded or death of their “bread-winners.”
Many small groups of militants from all over North Caucasus are now based in the woods of the southern parts of Daghestan bordering on Azerbaijan. Major acts of destabilisation of the situation in this region can happen as early as the spring of 2009.
Georgia’s rearmament that is going full speed ahead while its authorities are determined to have a revenge, indicate that the US has not given up its plans of securing control over the Black Sea-Caspian region with an eye at ensuring a follow-up thrust to Iran and Persian Gulf. This can be done by provoking any of the smoldering ethnic conflicts in Azerbaijan to rekindle, thus vindicating the need to destpatch NATO (Turkish) troops to that country. The necessary prerequisite for this scenario, “the fifth column” is in place in Azerbaijan.
Simultaneous deterioration of Azerbaijan’s situation may also pave the way for NATO invasion to this region. In this eventuality the “go-ahead” signal for the NATO interference in the Caucasus would be given fast to outpace potential Russian reaction.
Deterioration of the situation in winter is highly unlikely owing to greater transparency of the woods making it harder for terrorists to act. At present militants are returning to many north Caucasian towns from “the green” to stay for the winter, staging their troublesome acts of terror in these towns. Frosts will soon close the passes of the Main Caucasian Range with snow blocking secret paths between the republics in the region until the snow-melting time. After the passages are free from snow and there is foliage a new “field season” of the 2009 terrorist war will begin.
Precisely by next spring when Barack Obama settles down in the White House and is fully prepared to make responsible decisions, a changeover from peaceful developments to the phase of hostilities can be expected. The chances are great that this will happen at the junction of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran.
Such a turn in the developments could prove extremely dangerous to Russia. “The 5-day war” has demonstrated serious incapacity of the Russian army. As military experts evidence, at the time the attack on South Ossetia started, top-level officers of the General Staff, which happened to become too attractive “real estate”, were loading pieces of furniture to vacate the building of the General Staff in Moscow’s Arbat street intending to sell them later. State-of-the-art arms that Russian military financiers are fond of touting at all sorts of exhibitions are sold abroad, sometimes even to our geopolitical adversaries, leaving the dilapidated weapons of the Brezhnev era to the army. These arms may still be good to fight Georgians, but a serious enemy would fix a high and cruel price.
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The replacement of president in Ingushetia was a forced measure not because former president M.Ziaikov was no good at all; the reason behind was the clash between too serious forces in the republic itself and its near a remote neighbourhoods. To sever the knot and place a new man at the top, a patriot and heroic officer, the perpetuator of the famous Pristina thrust was definitely a good cadre and political move. Meanwhile the situation in virtually all other north Caucasian republics is gradually turning totally chaotic.
The crush in 1999 of the “Wahabbi” geopolitical project masterminded chiefly by the United States and Britain failed to disorient the nationalist criminal and political elites in the north Caucasian republics for long. They turned back to the Turkish project they thought of more and decided to sit on the fence for the time being. Their principal task now was to retain their positions in the bodies of power and economy. It only needs to be added that in the wake of “the 5-day war” the criminal nationalist elites of North Caucasian non-Turk nations set their minds on a new possibility of a “Kosovo version” that might ensure them international protectorate. Most representatives of these criminal groups fit well in the structure of authorities and business, thus being able to finance their terrorist networks by tribute money they collect from both the shadow businesses and legal entities.
The financial and economic crisis that has of late begun to gain momentum will hurt residents of subsidized republics the most. Their elites that have grown accustomed to a life of luxury will not share their profits with ordinary people, and they would not steal less from the budgets.
Many North Caucasian regions have long lived on the verge of poverty and social explosion, so it is not hard to forecast a serious deterioration of the social and economic situation in Russia’s southern extremities by next spring.
Ingushetia is taking in the wind of renovation. Giving his due to the former president, the change of leader was the only possible solution. But this will not save the whole situation. Oppressive silence is now hanging over other North Caucasian republics. It is usually felt before the rainstorm, which, as it always happens, should be expected by springtime. Do we have enough time to prepare for it?
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